Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Over |
| Money | MUR -350 SPU +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +10 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -8.3 (-18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -7.4 (-17.4) | 131.6 (-1.6) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -6.6 (-16.6) | 129.9 (+0.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -7.3 (-17.3) | 131.3 (-1.3) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -6.4 (-16.4) | 131.6 (-1.6) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-3 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-0 | 9-4 |
| Away | 11-1 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 62.9 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#30) | 3.4 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#9) | 0.68 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#15) | 0.78 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#10) | 0.561 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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