I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
(7) Murray State Racers
60 70
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(15) Saint Peter's Peacocks
Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Neutral) · March 20, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread MUR -8.0 Away covered
O/U 129.0 Over
Money MUR -350 / SPU +280
Model Predictions
Spread Total MUR win
Actual SPU +10 130 Lost
Massey MUR -8.3 (-18.3)
Massey Totals 127.0 (+3.0)
Bradley-Terry 92%
Weighted B-T 94%
Baseline Plus ML MUR -8.9 (-18.9) 132.3 (-2.3) 80%
Model 4 ML MUR -8.4 (-18.4) 129.7 (+0.3) 78%
Model 3 ML MUR -10.1 (-20.1) 132.9 (-2.9) 84%
Baseline ML MUR -8.4 (-18.4) 133.9 (-3.9) 81%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MUR SPU
Overall 31-3 22-12
Conference 18-0 14-6
Home 15-0 9-4
Away 11-1 7-7
Neutral 5-2 6-1
Last 5 5-0 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.3 66.4
Avg Pts Against 63.4 62.9
Massey 11.7 (#30) 3.4 (#113)
Bradley-Terry 3.17 (#9) 0.68 (#120)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.58 (#15) 0.78 (#118)
RPI 0.625 (#10) 0.561 (#62)
Shooting & Four Factors MUR SPU
FG% 46.5% 42.8%
3PT% 34.5% 35.4%
REB / G 38.3 35.9
OREB / G 12.4 10.8
AST / TO 1.21 0.87
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.9% 48.2%
TOV% 17.0% 20.8%
ORB% 35.3% 31.4%
FT Rate 22.2% 25.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.2% 44.1%
Opp TOV% 20.7% 20.8%
DRB% 74.7% 71.7%
Opp FT Rate 16.8% 30.4%

Game Analysis

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