Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | UCLA -1600 AKR +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +4 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -16.2 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -11.9 (-7.9) | 135.0 (-25.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -12.0 (-8.0) | 131.8 (-21.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -12.4 (-8.4) | 132.8 (-22.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -12.2 (-8.2) | 135.2 (-25.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-4 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 63.9 |
| Massey | 17.7 (#9) | 1.6 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#11) | 0.64 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#9) | 0.76 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#12) | 0.532 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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