So let the words of our mouth and the meditation of our heart be acceptable in thy sight, O Fari! "By the RIvers of Babylon"-The Melodians
(7) Murray State Racers
92 87 OT
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(10) San Francisco Dons
Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Neutral) · March 18, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread SF -1.0 Home covered
Money MUR -125 / SF +105
Model Predictions
Spread Total MUR win
Actual MUR +5 179 Won
Massey SF -1.8 (+6.8)
Massey Totals 137.2 (+41.8)
Bradley-Terry 71%
Weighted B-T 59%
Baseline Plus ML MUR -0.5 (+4.5) 140.7 (+38.3) 61%
Model 4 ML SF -0.2 (+5.2) 137.1 (+41.9) 62%
Model 3 ML MUR -0.6 (+4.4) 142.0 (+37.0) 56%
Baseline ML SF -0.0 (+5.0) 142.0 (+37.0) 56%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MUR SF
Overall 31-3 24-10
Conference 18-0 10-6
Home 15-0 14-4
Away 11-1 7-2
Neutral 5-2 3-4
Last 5 5-0 3-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 76.3 76.3
Avg Pts Against 63.4 67.5
Massey 11.5 (#31) 13.3 (#22)
Bradley-Terry 3.02 (#12) 2.12 (#37)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.36 (#16) 2.99 (#23)
RPI 0.619 (#9) 0.583 (#37)
Shooting & Four Factors MUR SF
FG% 46.4% 45.4%
3PT% 34.7% 34.7%
REB / G 38.2 37.7
OREB / G 12.4 10.7
AST / TO 1.21 1.00
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.9% 53.1%
TOV% 17.0% 18.1%
ORB% 35.5% 30.2%
FT Rate 21.7% 19.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.0% 46.9%
Opp TOV% 21.1% 18.5%
DRB% 74.6% 76.2%
Opp FT Rate 16.6% 22.9%

Game Analysis

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