Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -1.0 Home covered |
| Money | MUR -125 SF +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +5 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | SF -1.8 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (+41.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -0.9 (+5.9) | 142.3 (+36.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -1.1 (+6.1) | 137.7 (+41.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -0.8 (+5.8) | 140.9 (+38.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SF -1.6 (+6.6) | 142.1 (+36.9) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-3 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 10-6 |
| Home | 15-0 | 14-4 |
| Away | 11-1 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 67.5 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#31) | 13.3 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#12) | 2.12 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.36 (#16) | 2.99 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#9) | 0.583 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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