Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
| Money | PUR -1000 SPU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +3 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -13.3 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -11.3 (-14.3) | 134.9 (-3.9) | 83% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | PUR -15.0 (-18.0) | 133.1 (-2.1) | 81% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | PUR -11.5 (-14.5) | 137.1 (-6.1) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -11.6 (-14.6) | 136.9 (-5.9) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 62.9 |
| Massey | 17.4 (#12) | 4.0 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#7) | 0.90 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.90 (#9) | 1.07 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#13) | 0.575 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.