Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
| Money | PROV -150 SDST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +9 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -2.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (-30.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -2.7 (+6.3) | 155.1 (-32.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -2.6 (+6.4) | 149.7 (-26.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -3.1 (+5.9) | 151.8 (-28.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -2.8 (+6.2) | 153.6 (-30.6) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 18-0 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-0 |
| Away | 7-2 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#51) | 8.0 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.37 (#6) | 2.04 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.59 (#13) | 2.11 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#8) | 0.599 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 52.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 44.2% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 59.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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