Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | DUKE -105 TTU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +5 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -0.7 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -0.3 (+4.7) | 138.2 (+12.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -0.8 (+5.8) | 141.3 (+9.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -0.1 (+4.9) | 143.0 (+8.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -0.3 (+4.7) | 136.9 (+14.1) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | TTU 82 – 81 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-3 | 18-0 |
| Away | 9-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 60.6 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#11) | 18.2 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#12) | 3.19 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.91 (#8) | 3.97 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#16) | 0.597 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.8% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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