Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | PUR -160 TEX +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +10 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -2.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -2.9 (+7.1) | 137.3 (+14.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -2.4 (+7.6) | 133.1 (+18.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -3.4 (+6.6) | 134.6 (+17.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -3.4 (+6.6) | 136.1 (+15.9) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 26, 2026 | PUR 79 – 77 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 16-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 60.6 |
| Massey | 17.2 (#13) | 15.1 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#11) | 2.66 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.80 (#11) | 3.31 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#14) | 0.561 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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