Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Under |
| Money | VILL +140 HOU -160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +6 | 94 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -3.3 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.8 (-32.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -2.1 (+8.1) | 128.1 (-34.1) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -2.0 (+8.0) | 124.3 (-30.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -2.5 (+8.5) | 127.1 (-33.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -1.9 (+7.9) | 124.4 (-30.4) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 32-6 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-1 | 16-1 |
| Away | 8-5 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 9-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 58.8 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#11) | 20.8 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.52 (#3) | 3.10 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.07 (#5) | 4.01 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#4) | 0.642 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 43.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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