They put a hot wire to my head / Because of the things I did and said "Rise" - Public Image Ltd.
(2) Auburn Tigers
80 61
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(15) Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Bon Secours Wellness Arena (Neutral) · March 18, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread AUB -14.5 Home covered
O/U 140.0 Over
Money AUB -2000 / JXST +1000
Model Predictions
Spread Total AUB win
Actual AUB +19 141 Won
Massey AUB -16.6 (+2.4)
Massey Totals 140.7 (+0.3)
Bradley-Terry 95%
Weighted B-T 98%
Baseline Plus ML AUB -16.4 (+2.6) 141.1 (-0.1) 89%
Model 4 ML AUB -15.0 (+4.0) 139.3 (+1.7) 88%
Model 3 ML AUB -17.2 (+1.8) 141.9 (-0.9) 89%
Baseline ML AUB -17.4 (+1.6) 142.1 (-1.1) 89%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings AUB JXST
Neutral 4-3 1-2
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Massey 17.9 (#8) 1.2 (#147)
Bradley-Terry 3.24 (#8) 0.20 (#153)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.06 (#5) 0.18 (#160)
RPI 0.638 (#3) 0.515 (#144)
Shooting & Four Factors AUB JXST
FG% 44.0% 46.0%
3PT% 32.0% 38.2%
REB / G 39.9 36.3
OREB / G 12.5 9.1
AST / TO 1.21 1.01
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.3% 54.2%
TOV% 16.6% 20.0%
ORB% 33.1% 28.3%
FT Rate 23.2% 22.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.1% 48.0%
Opp TOV% 20.8% 17.1%
DRB% 70.7% 73.7%
Opp FT Rate 25.4% 16.3%

Game Analysis

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