Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
| Money | AUB -2000 JXST +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +19 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -16.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -13.6 (+5.4) | 142.0 (-1.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -12.5 (+6.5) | 139.5 (+1.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -13.4 (+5.6) | 140.8 (+0.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -14.0 (+5.0) | 142.4 (-1.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 17.9 (#8) | 1.2 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#8) | 0.20 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.06 (#5) | 0.18 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#3) | 0.515 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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