Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -9.0 Away covered |
| Money | IOWA -270 RICH +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +4 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | IOWA -10.8 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (-23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -8.5 (-12.5) | 152.6 (-22.6) | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -7.8 (-11.8) | 149.3 (-19.3) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -8.7 (-12.7) | 151.3 (-21.3) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -8.3 (-12.3) | 150.8 (-20.8) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#11) | 6.7 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#21) | 1.43 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#18) | 1.64 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#27) | 0.560 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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