Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | CSU +110 MICH -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +12 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | MICH -1.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -0.3 (-12.3) | 141.9 (-3.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -0.7 (-11.3) | 137.1 (+0.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -0.1 (-11.9) | 139.1 (-1.1) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -0.2 (-11.8) | 141.7 (-3.7) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-6 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-3 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#41) | 11.6 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#15) | 1.94 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#23) | 2.46 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#18) | 0.571 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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