Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -220 UNC +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +4 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -4.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -3.0 (-7.0) | 155.5 (+2.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -2.4 (-6.4) | 152.8 (+5.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -1.8 (-5.8) | 152.8 (+5.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -3.0 (-7.0) | 153.2 (+4.8) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | DUKE 76 – 61 UNC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNC 71 – 68 DUKE |
| Mar 14, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 71 UNC |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DUKE 82 – 69 UNC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | DUKE 87 – 70 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 9-2 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 17.9 (#9) | 13.4 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#7) | 2.74 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.19 (#4) | 3.20 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#11) | 0.613 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 78.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.8% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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