Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | TTU -380 ND +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +6 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -8.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -7.7 (-1.7) | 136.4 (-24.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -7.0 (-1.0) | 132.5 (-20.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -6.1 (-0.1) | 135.5 (-23.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -6.9 (-0.9) | 136.9 (-24.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 18-0 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 18.4 (#8) | 9.9 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.16 (#11) | 2.05 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.96 (#7) | 2.41 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#29) | 0.587 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 15.2% |
Game Analysis
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