Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | KU -250 MIA +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +26 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | KU -8.9 (+17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-27.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -7.5 (+18.5) | 150.6 (-24.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -7.2 (+18.8) | 145.5 (-19.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -6.4 (+19.6) | 147.8 (-21.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -6.5 (+19.5) | 147.4 (-21.4) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 14-6 |
| Home | 19-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-4 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 9-1 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W11 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 18.9 (#5) | 10.0 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.63 (#2) | 2.33 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.38 (#1) | 2.91 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.657 (#1) | 0.586 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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