Lights going out, and a kick in the balls. "That's Entertainment" - The Jam
(4) Illinois Fighting Illini
54 53
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(13) Chattanooga Mocs
PPG Paints Arena (Neutral) · March 18, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread ILL -7.5 Away covered
O/U 135.5 Under
Money ILL -215 / UTC +185
Model Predictions
Spread Total ILL win
Actual ILL +1 107 Won
Massey ILL -7.6 (-6.6)
Massey Totals 136.4 (-29.4)
Bradley-Terry 70%
Weighted B-T 78%
Baseline Plus ML ILL -6.4 (-5.4) 137.1 (-30.1) 77%
Model 4 ML ILL -7.2 (-6.2) 137.1 (-30.1) 78%
Model 3 ML ILL -7.4 (-6.4) 139.4 (-32.4) 77%
Baseline ML ILL -6.1 (-5.1) 138.5 (-31.5) 76%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ILL UTC
Overall 23-10 27-8
Conference 15-5 14-4
Home 13-3 12-3
Away 7-4 12-4
Neutral 3-3 3-1
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.4 72.5
Avg Pts Against 67.2 65.4
Massey 15.0 (#16) 7.4 (#78)
Bradley-Terry 2.56 (#22) 1.72 (#58)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.11 (#21) 1.83 (#70)
RPI 0.583 (#38) 0.599 (#20)
Shooting & Four Factors ILL UTC
FG% 45.3% 46.1%
3PT% 36.7% 34.1%
REB / G 38.6 35.1
OREB / G 11.6 10.6
AST / TO 1.27 1.11
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.1% 52.8%
TOV% 17.8% 17.0%
ORB% 33.4% 32.7%
FT Rate 22.4% 20.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.3% 49.6%
Opp TOV% 15.5% 18.0%
DRB% 74.2% 73.7%
Opp FT Rate 20.5% 19.0%

Game Analysis

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