Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -215 UTC +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +1 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -7.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (-29.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -5.5 (-4.5) | 139.6 (-32.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -5.3 (-4.3) | 136.3 (-29.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -5.0 (-4.0) | 137.0 (-30.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -4.5 (-3.5) | 137.5 (-30.5) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 65.4 |
| Massey | 15.0 (#16) | 7.4 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#22) | 1.72 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.11 (#21) | 1.83 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#38) | 0.599 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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