Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | ILL +140 HOU -160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +15 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -5.3 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -4.9 (-10.1) | 135.8 (-14.8) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -4.6 (-10.4) | 133.1 (-12.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -3.7 (-11.3) | 134.6 (-13.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -5.1 (-9.9) | 131.9 (-10.9) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 27, 2026 | ILL 65 – 55 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 32-6 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 9-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 58.8 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#17) | 20.2 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#17) | 2.85 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#20) | 3.66 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#28) | 0.631 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 43.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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