Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -142 ILL +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +10 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -0.1 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (-20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -0.3 (-10.3) | 136.6 (-16.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -0.0 (-10.0) | 141.4 (-21.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -0.2 (-9.8) | 135.8 (-15.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -0.1 (-10.1) | 136.6 (-16.6) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 20, 2022 | HOU 68 – 53 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-3 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 23.7 (#7) | 23.8 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.00 (#4) | 3.44 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.99 (#4) | 4.59 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#8) | 0.626 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 39.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 11.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 14.3% |
Game Analysis
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