He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
(2) Duke Blue Devils
78 61
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(15) Cal State Fullerton Titans
Bon Secours Wellness Arena (Neutral) · March 18, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread DUKE -17.5 Away covered
O/U 143.0 Under
Money DUKE -650 / CSUF +475
Model Predictions
Spread Total DUKE win
Actual DUKE +17 139 Won
Massey DUKE -16.3 (+0.7)
Massey Totals 141.9 (-2.9)
Bradley-Terry 91%
Weighted B-T 96%
Baseline Plus ML DUKE -14.5 (+2.5) 143.7 (-4.7) 87%
Model 4 ML DUKE -17.4 (-0.4) 142.1 (-3.1) 89%
Model 3 ML DUKE -15.0 (+2.0) 145.9 (-6.9) 88%
Baseline ML DUKE -14.8 (+2.2) 146.0 (-7.0) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings DUKE CSUF
Overall 32-7 21-11
Conference 16-4 11-4
Home 15-3 11-2
Away 9-2 7-7
Neutral 8-2 3-2
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 80.1 68.6
Avg Pts Against 67.8 66.4
Massey 17.2 (#11) 1.0 (#151)
Bradley-Terry 2.84 (#15) 0.46 (#135)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.70 (#12) 0.39 (#144)
RPI 0.601 (#18) 0.520 (#131)
Shooting & Four Factors DUKE CSUF
FG% 48.9% 44.2%
3PT% 36.8% 33.5%
REB / G 38.3 32.9
OREB / G 10.7 9.4
AST / TO 1.65 0.90
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.6% 49.2%
TOV% 14.9% 18.0%
ORB% 31.8% 29.0%
FT Rate 20.8% 27.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.0% 50.8%
Opp TOV% 16.1% 20.3%
DRB% 71.5% 72.0%
Opp FT Rate 12.7% 18.0%

Game Analysis

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