Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
| Money | DUKE -650 CSUF +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +17 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -16.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -12.6 (+4.4) | 144.8 (-5.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -14.2 (+2.8) | 140.9 (-1.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -12.6 (+4.4) | 142.9 (-3.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -13.4 (+3.6) | 144.6 (-5.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 11-4 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 9-2 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 17.2 (#11) | 1.0 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#15) | 0.46 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#12) | 0.39 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#18) | 0.520 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.7% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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