Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -215 UAB +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +14 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -9.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -8.8 (+5.2) | 143.5 (+6.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -7.1 (+6.9) | 138.7 (+11.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -7.2 (+6.8) | 140.9 (+9.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -7.6 (+6.4) | 142.3 (+7.7) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 9-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Massey | 20.1 (#3) | 10.7 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#16) | 1.67 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#15) | 2.09 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#8) | 0.566 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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