Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | KU -340 PROV +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +5 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | KU -8.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -7.6 (-2.6) | 143.5 (-16.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | KU -8.2 (-3.2) | 142.5 (-15.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | KU -9.4 (-4.4) | 145.4 (-18.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -8.0 (-3.0) | 142.7 (-15.7) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 27-6 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 14-3 |
| Home | 19-1 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 9-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W11 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 19.1 (#5) | 11.0 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#2) | 3.47 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.37 (#3) | 3.66 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.651 (#1) | 0.635 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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