Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
| Money | GONZ -10000 GAST +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +21 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -24.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -16.5 (+4.5) | 152.0 (+13.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -15.4 (+5.6) | 153.7 (+11.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -16.9 (+4.1) | 153.5 (+11.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -18.7 (+2.3) | 152.5 (+12.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 9-5 |
| Home | 16-0 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-1 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.2 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 24.4 (#1) | 0.1 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.66 (#2) | 0.40 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.66 (#1) | 0.52 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#12) | 0.510 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.7% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.4% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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