Lord Lucan is missing. "Lord Lucan is Missing" - The Dodgems
(1) Gonzaga Bulldogs
93 72
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(16) Georgia State Panthers
Moda Center (Neutral) · March 17, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread GONZ -22.5 Away covered
O/U 150.0 Over
Money GONZ -10000 / GAST +2000
Model Predictions
Spread Total GONZ win
Actual GONZ +21 165 Won
Massey GONZ -24.3 (-3.3)
Massey Totals 150.4 (+14.6)
Bradley-Terry 96%
Weighted B-T 98%
Baseline Plus ML GONZ -21.6 (-0.6) 153.7 (+11.3) 90%
Model 4 ML GONZ -18.2 (+2.8) 155.0 (+10.0) 90%
Model 3 ML GONZ -20.9 (+0.1) 153.2 (+11.8) 90%
Baseline ML GONZ -23.1 (-2.1) 152.4 (+12.6) 90%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GONZ GAST
Overall 28-4 18-11
Conference 13-1 9-5
Home 16-0 8-4
Away 5-1 6-6
Neutral 7-3 4-1
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 87.2 68.5
Avg Pts Against 66.2 68.2
Massey 24.4 (#1) 0.1 (#165)
Bradley-Terry 3.66 (#2) 0.40 (#139)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.66 (#1) 0.52 (#133)
RPI 0.615 (#12) 0.510 (#151)
Shooting & Four Factors GONZ GAST
FG% 52.7% 39.1%
3PT% 37.9% 32.3%
REB / G 41.5 36.1
OREB / G 9.4 12.7
AST / TO 1.55 1.08
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 59.4% 45.1%
TOV% 16.0% 16.9%
ORB% 29.0% 32.8%
FT Rate 21.8% 21.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 43.1% 49.7%
Opp TOV% 17.0% 22.7%
DRB% 77.0% 69.3%
Opp FT Rate 15.4% 22.9%

Game Analysis

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