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Baseline Tuned — 2024 NCAA Tournament

Each decided game is marked by whether this model's pre-game favorite won — matchup by matchup, from predictions recorded before tip-off. Undecided games show the model's current pick.

Plain bracket
45–22 on winners log loss 0.5554 upsets called 3 upsets missed 16 First Four 2–2 · 1st Round 19–13 · 2nd Round 15–1 · Sweet 16 3–5 · Elite 8 3–1 · Final Four 2–0 · National Championship 1–0

East

1 UConn 91
16 Stetson 52
✓ CONN 88%
8 FAU 65
9 Northwestern 77
✗ FAU 57%
5 San Diego St 69
12 UAB 65
✓ SDSU 77%
4 Auburn 76
13 Yale 78
✗ AUB 82%
6 BYU 67
11 Duquesne 71
✗ BYU 73%
3 Illinois 85
14 Morehead St 69
✓ ILL 83%
7 Washington St 66
10 Drake 61
✓ WSU 49%
2 Iowa State 82
15 S Dakota St 65
✓ ISU 87%
1 UConn 75
9 Northwestern 58
✓ CONN 81%
5 San Diego St 85
13 Yale 57
✓ SDSU 68%
11 Duquesne 63
3 Illinois 89
✓ ILL 77%
7 Washington St 56
2 Iowa State 67
✓ ISU 75%
1 UConn 82
5 San Diego St 52
✓ CONN 76%
3 Illinois 72
2 Iowa State 69
✗ ISU 58%
1 UConn 77
3 Illinois 52
✓ CONN 70%

West

1 North Carolina 90
16 Wagner 62
FF: WAG 71, HOW 68
✓ UNC 88%
8 Mississippi St 51
9 Michigan St 69
✓ MSU 56%
5 Saint Mary's 66
12 Grand Canyon 75
✗ SMC 62%
4 Alabama 109
13 Charleston 96
✓ ALA 78%
6 Clemson 77
11 New Mexico 56
✗ UNM 62%
3 Baylor 92
14 Colgate 67
✓ BAY 85%
7 Dayton 63
10 Nevada 60
✗ NEV 52%
2 Arizona 85
15 Long Beach St 65
✓ ARIZ 88%
1 North Carolina 85
9 Michigan St 69
✓ UNC 65%
12 Grand Canyon 61
4 Alabama 72
✓ ALA 65%
6 Clemson 72
3 Baylor 64
✗ BAY 60%
7 Dayton 68
2 Arizona 78
✓ ARIZ 76%
1 North Carolina 87
4 Alabama 89
✗ UNC 58%
6 Clemson 77
2 Arizona 72
✗ ARIZ 74%
4 Alabama 89
6 Clemson 82
✓ ALA 60%

Final Four

1 UConn 86
4 Alabama 72
✓ CONN 73%

Championship

1 UConn 75
1 Purdue 60
✓ CONN 52%

Final Four

1 Purdue 63
11 NC State 50
✓ PUR 80%

South

1 Houston 86
16 Longwood 46
✓ HOU 88%
8 Nebraska 83
9 Texas A&M 98
✗ NEB 56%
5 Wisconsin 61
12 James Madison 72
✗ WIS 59%
4 Duke 64
13 Vermont 47
✓ DUKE 80%
6 Texas Tech 67
11 NC State 80
✗ TTU 58%
3 Kentucky 76
14 Oakland 80
✗ UK 81%
7 Florida 100
10 Colorado 102
FF: COLO 60, BOIS 53
✓ COLO 55%
2 Marquette 87
15 Western KY 69
✓ MARQ 84%
1 Houston 100
9 Texas A&M 95
✓ HOU 82%
12 James Madison 55
4 Duke 93
✓ DUKE 70%
11 NC State 79
14 Oakland 73
✓ NCSU 70%
10 Colorado 77
2 Marquette 81
✓ MARQ 61%
1 Houston 51
4 Duke 54
✗ HOU 66%
11 NC State 67
2 Marquette 58
✗ MARQ 69%
4 Duke 64
11 NC State 76
✗ DUKE 73%

Midwest

1 Purdue 78
16 Grambling 50
FF: GRAM 88, MTST 81
✓ PUR 87%
8 Utah State 88
9 TCU 72
✗ TCU 50%
5 Gonzaga 86
12 McNeese 65
✓ GONZ 69%
4 Kansas 93
13 Samford 89
✓ KU 70%
6 South Carolina 73
11 Oregon 87
✗ SC 53%
3 Creighton 77
14 Akron 60
✓ CREI 83%
7 Texas 56
10 Colorado St 44
FF: CSU 67, UVA 42
✗ CSU 52%
2 Tennessee 83
15 Saint Peter's 49
✓ TENN 88%
1 Purdue 106
8 Utah State 67
✓ PUR 78%
5 Gonzaga 89
4 Kansas 68
✓ GONZ 62%
11 Oregon 73
3 Creighton 86
✓ CREI 69%
7 Texas 58
2 Tennessee 62
✓ TENN 67%
1 Purdue 80
5 Gonzaga 68
✓ PUR 71%
3 Creighton 75
2 Tennessee 82
✓ TENN 57%
1 Purdue 72
2 Tennessee 66
✓ PUR 64%