Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +28 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -25.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (+20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -18.3 (+9.7) | 131.9 (+20.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -18.1 (+9.9) | 131.1 (+20.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -19.5 (+8.5) | 132.1 (+19.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -19.7 (+8.3) | 130.2 (+21.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 7-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 7-5 |
| Away | 8-2 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 62.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#9) | -7.1 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#5) | -1.08 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.78 (#4) | -1.56 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#10) | 0.459 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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