Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
(4) Alabama Crimson Tide
72 61
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(12) Grand Canyon Lopes
Spokane Arena (Neutral) · March 24, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread ALA -5.5 Home covered
O/U 172.5 Under
Money ALA -250 / GCU +188
Model Predictions
Spread Total ALA win
Actual ALA +11 133 Won
Massey ALA -7.8 (+3.2)
Massey Totals 167.8 (-34.8)
Bradley-Terry 50%
Weighted B-T 54%
Baseline Plus ML ALA -6.1 (+4.9) 160.7 (-27.7) 72%
Model 4 ML ALA -5.4 (+5.6) 158.1 (-25.1) 72%
Model 3 ML ALA -5.5 (+5.5) 162.1 (-29.1) 71%
Baseline ML ALA -4.9 (+6.1) 159.5 (-26.5) 70%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ALA GCU
Overall 25-12 30-5
Conference 13-5 17-3
Home 14-2 16-0
Away 5-5 8-3
Neutral 6-5 5-2
Last 5 2-3 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 90.1 77.8
Avg Pts Against 81.2 66.8
Massey 18.1 (#9) 10.3 (#52)
Bradley-Terry 2.34 (#21) 2.34 (#20)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.93 (#17) 2.76 (#23)
RPI 0.613 (#13) 0.611 (#14)
Shooting & Four Factors ALA GCU
FG% 48.1% 45.8%
3PT% 37.0% 34.2%
REB / G 39.4 37.7
OREB / G 12.5 11.5
AST / TO 1.35 0.95
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.7% 51.9%
TOV% 15.9% 17.7%
ORB% 34.6% 34.1%
FT Rate 27.9% 34.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.8% 45.8%
Opp TOV% 15.5% 19.8%
DRB% 69.8% 70.3%
Opp FT Rate 29.4% 24.1%

Game Analysis

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