Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 172.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -250 GCU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +11 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -7.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.8 (-34.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -3.3 (+7.7) | 161.3 (-28.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -4.9 (+6.1) | 163.1 (-30.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -3.0 (+8.0) | 160.7 (-27.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -2.5 (+8.5) | 156.4 (-23.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 17-3 |
| Home | 14-2 | 16-0 |
| Away | 5-5 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.1 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#9) | 10.3 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#21) | 2.34 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#17) | 2.76 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#13) | 0.611 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 34.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.