Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | NEB -111 TA&M -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +15 | 181 | Lost |
| Massey | NEB -2.1 (-17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+37.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -1.2 (-16.2) | 146.3 (+34.7) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -1.2 (-16.2) | 146.2 (+34.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -0.5 (-15.5) | 148.3 (+32.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -1.2 (-16.2) | 148.9 (+32.1) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 18-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#33) | 10.5 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#28) | 1.76 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#28) | 2.42 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#41) | 0.557 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 42.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 17.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 41.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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