Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | USU +145 TCU -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +16 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -2.3 (+18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -0.7 (+16.7) | 153.1 (+6.9) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -1.2 (+17.2) | 151.2 (+8.8) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -1.0 (+17.0) | 153.3 (+6.7) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -0.9 (+16.9) | 153.6 (+6.4) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#47) | 13.3 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#9) | 1.87 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#25) | 2.28 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#9) | 0.536 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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