And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
(4) Duke Blue Devils
93 55
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(12) James Madison Dukes
Barclays Center (Neutral) · March 24, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread DUKE -6.5 Home covered
O/U 147.5 Over
Money DUKE -275 / JMU +210
Model Predictions
Spread Total DUKE win
Actual DUKE +38 148 Won
Massey DUKE -7.8 (+30.2)
Massey Totals 150.9 (-2.9)
Bradley-Terry 54%
Weighted B-T 64%
Baseline Plus ML DUKE -8.9 (+29.1) 143.4 (+4.6) 76%
Model 4 ML DUKE -7.3 (+30.7) 142.6 (+5.4) 75%
Model 3 ML DUKE -7.0 (+31.0) 144.4 (+3.6) 77%
Baseline ML DUKE -6.3 (+31.7) 143.7 (+4.3) 71%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings DUKE JMU
Overall 27-9 32-4
Conference 15-5 15-3
Home 15-3 14-1
Away 7-4 12-2
Neutral 5-2 6-1
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 78.6 81.9
Avg Pts Against 66.3 69.9
Massey 17.7 (#10) 9.8 (#54)
Bradley-Terry 2.47 (#13) 2.31 (#22)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.22 (#12) 2.63 (#29)
RPI 0.596 (#22) 0.569 (#53)
Shooting & Four Factors DUKE JMU
FG% 48.0% 47.3%
3PT% 37.6% 36.3%
REB / G 36.6 37.9
OREB / G 10.5 11.2
AST / TO 1.57 1.51
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.0% 54.2%
TOV% 14.3% 14.8%
ORB% 31.9% 31.6%
FT Rate 24.8% 24.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.8% 46.6%
Opp TOV% 17.0% 19.9%
DRB% 74.4% 72.6%
Opp FT Rate 18.6% 25.7%

Game Analysis

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