Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -275 JMU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +38 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -7.8 (+30.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -4.9 (+33.1) | 144.9 (+3.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -5.9 (+32.1) | 142.5 (+5.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -6.5 (+31.5) | 144.6 (+3.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -4.9 (+33.1) | 144.1 (+3.9) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 32-4 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 17.7 (#10) | 9.8 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#13) | 2.31 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#12) | 2.63 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#22) | 0.569 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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