Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
(2) Arizona Wildcats
78 68
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(7) Dayton Flyers
Delta Center (Neutral) · March 23, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread ARIZ -8.5 Home covered
O/U 148.5 Under
Money ARIZ -400 / DAY +280
Model Predictions
Spread Total ARIZ win
Actual ARIZ +10 146 Won
Massey ARIZ -10.0 (-0.0)
Massey Totals 153.1 (-7.1)
Bradley-Terry 54%
Weighted B-T 61%
Baseline Plus ML ARIZ -10.2 (-0.2) 148.7 (-2.7) 83%
Model 4 ML ARIZ -10.0 (+0.0) 146.1 (-0.1) 82%
Model 3 ML ARIZ -8.4 (+1.6) 148.5 (-2.5) 82%
Baseline ML ARIZ -9.3 (+0.7) 148.8 (-2.8) 81%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ARIZ DAY
Neutral 5-4 4-3
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Massey 22.3 (#2) 12.3 (#36)
Bradley-Terry 2.56 (#11) 2.41 (#17)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.34 (#9) 2.87 (#18)
RPI 0.626 (#5) 0.633 (#3)
Shooting & Four Factors ARIZ DAY
FG% 48.7% 47.7%
3PT% 37.1% 40.2%
REB / G 42.8 33.6
OREB / G 13.2 8.0
AST / TO 1.56 1.44
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.8% 56.6%
TOV% 16.0% 15.9%
ORB% 35.9% 26.5%
FT Rate 26.1% 27.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.2% 48.0%
Opp TOV% 18.0% 15.7%
DRB% 76.5% 71.2%
Opp FT Rate 18.3% 15.7%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.