Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | ARIZ -400 DAY +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +10 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -10.0 (-0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -7.3 (+2.7) | 147.7 (-1.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -7.5 (+2.5) | 145.8 (+0.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -7.9 (+2.1) | 148.6 (-2.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -8.6 (+1.4) | 148.3 (-2.3) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-1 | 15-0 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 22.3 (#2) | 12.3 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#11) | 2.41 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.34 (#9) | 2.87 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#5) | 0.633 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 40.2% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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