I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
(1) UConn Huskies
82 52
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(5) San Diego State Aztecs
TD Garden (Neutral) · March 28, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread CONN -11.5 Home covered
O/U 137.5 Under
Money CONN -1000 / SDSU +550
Model Predictions
Spread Total CONN win
Actual CONN +30 134 Won
Massey CONN -8.4 (+21.6)
Massey Totals 137.6 (-3.6)
Bradley-Terry 82%
Weighted B-T 83%
Baseline Plus ML CONN -11.2 (+18.8) 139.9 (-5.9) 85%
Model 4 ML CONN -9.6 (+20.4) 137.9 (-3.9) 84%
Model 3 ML CONN -11.0 (+19.0) 139.8 (-5.8) 82%
Baseline ML CONN -9.4 (+20.6) 140.6 (-6.6) 83%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Apr 4, 2023 CONN 7659 SDSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CONN SDSU
Overall 37-3 26-11
Conference 18-2 11-7
Home 17-0 14-1
Away 8-3 6-8
Neutral 12-0 6-2
Last 5 5-0 4-1
Streak W13 L1
Avg Pts For 81.4 73.7
Avg Pts Against 63.4 67.4
Massey 22.5 (#2) 14.2 (#20)
Bradley-Terry 3.97 (#1) 2.48 (#15)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.67 (#2) 3.08 (#14)
RPI 0.631 (#4) 0.623 (#7)
Shooting & Four Factors CONN SDSU
FG% 49.8% 44.1%
3PT% 36.1% 31.8%
REB / G 38.5 37.5
OREB / G 11.5 11.4
AST / TO 1.91 1.18
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 57.2% 50.2%
TOV% 14.7% 16.2%
ORB% 36.2% 32.8%
FT Rate 24.3% 27.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.7% 47.1%
Opp TOV% 16.2% 18.1%
DRB% 73.4% 72.1%
Opp FT Rate 23.4% 23.5%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.