Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -1000 SDSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +30 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -8.4 (+21.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -7.7 (+22.3) | 139.6 (-5.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -6.0 (+24.0) | 137.6 (-3.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -7.8 (+22.2) | 139.6 (-5.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -6.9 (+23.1) | 140.4 (-6.4) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Apr 4, 2023 | CONN 76 – 59 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 17-0 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 22.5 (#2) | 14.2 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.97 (#1) | 2.48 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.67 (#2) | 3.08 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#4) | 0.623 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.91 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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