See my tailor, he's called Simon, I know it's going to fit. "Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll" - Ian Dury
(4) UConn Huskies
76 59
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(5) San Diego State Aztecs
NRG Stadium (Neutral) · April 4, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread CONN -7.5 Home covered
O/U 131.0 Over
Money CONN -360 / SDSU +280
Model Predictions
Spread Total CONN win
Actual CONN +17 135 Won
Massey CONN -6.2 (+10.8)
Massey Totals 131.7 (+3.3)
Bradley-Terry 46%
Weighted B-T 66%
Baseline Plus ML CONN -6.1 (+10.9) 133.6 (+1.4) 79%
Model 4 ML CONN -6.9 (+10.1) 132.9 (+2.1) 77%
Model 3 ML CONN -6.5 (+10.5) 134.2 (+0.8) 73%
Baseline ML CONN -6.0 (+11.0) 131.6 (+3.4) 80%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 28, 2024 CONN 8252 SDSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CONN SDSU
Overall 31-8 32-7
Conference 13-7 15-3
Home 15-2 15-1
Away 6-5 8-2
Neutral 10-1 9-4
Last 5 5-0 5-0
Streak W6 L1
Avg Pts For 78.6 70.5
Avg Pts Against 64.1 63.6
Massey 20.2 (#2) 14.1 (#15)
Bradley-Terry 2.95 (#9) 3.10 (#6)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.99 (#3) 3.34 (#13)
RPI 0.618 (#10) 0.657 (#2)
Shooting & Four Factors CONN SDSU
FG% 46.4% 43.9%
3PT% 36.3% 34.3%
REB / G 39.3 36.2
OREB / G 13.1 10.8
AST / TO 1.37 1.10
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.1% 49.6%
TOV% 18.8% 17.2%
ORB% 38.6% 31.7%
FT Rate 22.9% 24.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.6% 46.5%
Opp TOV% 18.5% 19.2%
DRB% 74.1% 74.1%
Opp FT Rate 27.8% 22.1%

Game Analysis

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