Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
| Money | CONN -360 SDSU +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +17 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -6.2 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -4.9 (+12.1) | 132.9 (+2.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -5.0 (+12.0) | 132.2 (+2.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -4.2 (+12.8) | 131.6 (+3.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -4.4 (+12.6) | 130.1 (+4.9) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 28, 2024 | CONN 82 – 52 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 9-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 20.2 (#2) | 14.1 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#9) | 3.10 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.99 (#3) | 3.34 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#10) | 0.657 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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