Funky Claude was running in and out / pulling kids out the ground "Smoke On the Water" - Deep Purple
(5) San Diego State Aztecs
69 65
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(12) UAB Blazers
Spokane Arena (Neutral) · March 22, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SDSU -6.5 Away covered
O/U 140.5 Under
Money SDSU -275 / UAB +210
Model Predictions
Spread Total SDSU win
Actual SDSU +4 134 Won
Massey SDSU -9.7 (-5.7)
Massey Totals 145.3 (-11.3)
Bradley-Terry 75%
Weighted B-T 84%
Baseline Plus ML SDSU -9.1 (-5.1) 146.0 (-12.0) 80%
Model 4 ML SDSU -8.9 (-4.9) 145.2 (-11.2) 79%
Model 3 ML SDSU -9.6 (-5.6) 143.3 (-9.3) 83%
Baseline ML SDSU -9.4 (-5.4) 145.3 (-11.3) 81%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SDSU UAB
Overall 26-11 23-12
Conference 11-7 12-6
Home 14-1 12-5
Away 6-8 7-5
Neutral 6-2 4-2
Last 5 2-3 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.7 77.0
Avg Pts Against 67.4 75.6
Massey 13.9 (#23) 4.3 (#108)
Bradley-Terry 2.40 (#16) 1.30 (#81)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.00 (#14) 1.36 (#91)
RPI 0.616 (#11) 0.568 (#56)
Shooting & Four Factors SDSU UAB
FG% 43.9% 45.0%
3PT% 31.3% 33.0%
REB / G 37.5 38.0
OREB / G 11.5 12.8
AST / TO 1.19 1.15
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.8% 50.2%
TOV% 16.0% 16.7%
ORB% 32.7% 35.3%
FT Rate 27.3% 30.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.2% 51.0%
Opp TOV% 18.0% 16.1%
DRB% 72.0% 69.0%
Opp FT Rate 23.3% 22.6%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.