Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | DAY +105 NEV -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +3 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -0.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -0.3 (+3.3) | 139.9 (-16.9) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -0.0 (+3.0) | 138.3 (-15.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -0.5 (+3.5) | 138.6 (-15.6) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -0.0 (+3.0) | 140.8 (-17.8) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#41) | 11.8 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#25) | 2.55 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#25) | 2.95 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#3) | 0.590 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 33.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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