I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
(7) Dayton Flyers
63 60
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(10) Nevada Wolf Pack
Delta Center (Neutral) · March 21, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread NEV -1.5 Home covered
O/U 136.5 Under
Money DAY +105 / NEV -133
Model Predictions
Spread Total DAY win
Actual DAY +3 123 Won
Massey DAY -0.2 (+2.8)
Massey Totals 139.1 (-16.1)
Bradley-Terry 42%
Weighted B-T 44%
Baseline Plus ML DAY -1.0 (+2.0) 138.4 (-15.4) 59%
Model 4 ML DAY -1.7 (+1.3) 138.2 (-15.2) 56%
Model 3 ML DAY -0.1 (+2.9) 140.2 (-17.2) 53%
Baseline ML DAY -0.8 (+2.2) 142.0 (-19.0) 55%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings DAY NEV
Overall 25-8 26-8
Conference 14-4 13-5
Home 15-0 15-2
Away 6-5 8-3
Neutral 4-3 3-3
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 74.2 75.5
Avg Pts Against 66.5 67.2
Massey 12.1 (#41) 11.8 (#44)
Bradley-Terry 2.24 (#25) 2.55 (#12)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.73 (#25) 2.95 (#16)
RPI 0.626 (#3) 0.590 (#29)
Shooting & Four Factors DAY NEV
FG% 47.7% 47.2%
3PT% 40.2% 36.5%
REB / G 33.7 34.4
OREB / G 8.2 8.8
AST / TO 1.44 1.47
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.7% 53.3%
TOV% 15.8% 15.0%
ORB% 26.8% 27.5%
FT Rate 27.3% 33.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.9% 48.2%
Opp TOV% 15.6% 17.4%
DRB% 71.0% 72.7%
Opp FT Rate 16.0% 23.9%

Game Analysis

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