Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +28 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -28.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -17.1 (+10.9) | 141.2 (-13.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -17.7 (+10.3) | 142.2 (-14.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -21.9 (+6.1) | 140.1 (-12.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -21.8 (+6.2) | 139.9 (-11.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 16-0 | 9-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 21.7 (#4) | -7.1 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.71 (#2) | -0.17 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.59 (#1) | -0.35 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.674 (#1) | 0.524 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.8% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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