Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -700 USU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +39 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -10.0 (+29.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (+17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -8.4 (+30.6) | 154.1 (+18.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -7.3 (+31.7) | 153.0 (+20.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -7.6 (+31.4) | 152.7 (+20.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -8.5 (+30.5) | 152.2 (+20.8) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 16-0 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 21.6 (#4) | 11.6 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.72 (#2) | 2.70 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.60 (#1) | 2.82 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.673 (#1) | 0.619 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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