The black queen chants the funeral march, the cracked brass bells will ring / To summon back the fire witch to the court of the crimson king "The Court of the Crimson King" - King Crimson
(1) Purdue Boilermakers
106 67
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(8) Utah State Aggies
Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Neutral) · March 24, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread PUR -11.5 Home covered
O/U 150.5 Over
Money PUR -700 / USU +450
Model Predictions
Spread Total PUR win
Actual PUR +39 173 Won
Massey PUR -10.0 (+29.0)
Massey Totals 155.5 (+17.5)
Bradley-Terry 74%
Weighted B-T 85%
Baseline Plus ML PUR -9.8 (+29.2) 151.2 (+21.8) 83%
Model 4 ML PUR -9.9 (+29.1) 153.2 (+19.8) 83%
Model 3 ML PUR -10.9 (+28.1) 153.8 (+19.2) 84%
Baseline ML PUR -10.1 (+28.9) 152.4 (+20.6) 83%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PUR USU
Overall 34-5 28-7
Conference 17-3 14-4
Home 16-0 14-1
Away 7-3 8-4
Neutral 11-2 6-2
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 82.3 78.9
Avg Pts Against 69.0 72.6
Massey 21.6 (#4) 11.6 (#46)
Bradley-Terry 3.72 (#2) 2.70 (#8)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.60 (#1) 2.82 (#20)
RPI 0.673 (#1) 0.619 (#8)
Shooting & Four Factors PUR USU
FG% 48.8% 49.0%
3PT% 40.7% 32.4%
REB / G 40.6 35.8
OREB / G 12.3 9.4
AST / TO 1.62 1.46
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.9% 54.4%
TOV% 16.5% 15.6%
ORB% 37.8% 28.3%
FT Rate 30.6% 28.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.5% 49.3%
Opp TOV% 13.9% 16.5%
DRB% 75.6% 73.8%
Opp FT Rate 16.6% 22.0%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.