Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | UK -1000 OAK +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OAK +4 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | UK -12.1 (-16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -11.2 (-15.2) | 163.1 (-7.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UK -13.6 (-17.6) | 162.0 (-6.0) | 76% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | UK -9.9 (-13.9) | 163.7 (-7.7) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -11.2 (-15.2) | 162.8 (-6.8) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.0 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#19) | 2.7 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#21) | 0.85 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#19) | 0.68 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#46) | 0.563 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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