He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
(3) Kentucky Wildcats
76 80
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(14) Oakland Golden Grizzlies
PPG Paints Arena (Neutral) · March 21, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UK -13.5 Away covered
O/U 159.5 Under
Money UK -1000 / OAK +550
Model Predictions
Spread Total UK win
Actual OAK +4 156 Lost
Massey UK -12.1 (-16.1)
Massey Totals 165.8 (-9.8)
Bradley-Terry 81%
Weighted B-T 90%
Baseline Plus ML UK -11.2 (-15.2) 163.1 (-7.1) 70%
Model 4 ML UK -13.6 (-17.6) 162.0 (-6.0) 76%
Model 3 ML UK -9.9 (-13.9) 163.7 (-7.7) 83%
Baseline ML UK -11.2 (-15.2) 162.8 (-6.8) 71%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UK OAK
Overall 23-10 24-12
Conference 13-5 15-5
Home 14-4 10-3
Away 7-3 9-7
Neutral 2-3 5-2
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 89.0 76.4
Avg Pts Against 79.7 73.2
Massey 14.8 (#19) 2.7 (#130)
Bradley-Terry 2.31 (#21) 0.85 (#108)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.93 (#19) 0.68 (#123)
RPI 0.575 (#46) 0.563 (#61)
Shooting & Four Factors UK OAK
FG% 49.7% 45.0%
3PT% 41.2% 35.1%
REB / G 37.6 35.7
OREB / G 10.0 10.4
AST / TO 1.65 1.29
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 57.4% 52.1%
TOV% 14.3% 16.2%
ORB% 28.9% 30.4%
FT Rate 23.5% 23.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.4% 50.6%
Opp TOV% 16.0% 16.3%
DRB% 69.7% 71.4%
Opp FT Rate 24.0% 19.7%

Game Analysis

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