Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | TEX -167 CSU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +12 | 100 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -0.7 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-42.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -0.4 (+12.4) | 142.1 (-42.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -1.1 (+10.9) | 137.5 (-37.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -0.3 (+12.3) | 140.8 (-40.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -0.1 (+12.1) | 142.1 (-42.1) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.9 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#28) | 12.5 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#46) | 2.26 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#43) | 2.83 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#72) | 0.603 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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