Why don't you get back into bed. "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
(7) Texas Longhorns
56 44
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(10) Colorado State Rams
Spectrum Center (Neutral) · March 21, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread TEX -2.5 Home covered
O/U 143.5 Under
Money TEX -167 / CSU +130
Model Predictions
Spread Total TEX win
Actual TEX +12 100 Won
Massey TEX -0.7 (+11.3)
Massey Totals 142.1 (-42.1)
Bradley-Terry 40%
Weighted B-T 37%
Baseline Plus ML TEX -0.8 (+11.2) 139.7 (-39.7) 61%
Model 4 ML TEX -1.7 (+10.3) 136.5 (-36.5) 63%
Model 3 ML TEX -1.0 (+11.0) 141.4 (-41.4) 57%
Baseline ML TEX -1.3 (+10.7) 140.7 (-40.7) 61%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TEX CSU
Overall 21-13 25-11
Conference 9-9 10-8
Home 14-4 15-2
Away 4-6 4-7
Neutral 3-3 6-2
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.4 74.0
Avg Pts Against 68.9 67.9
Massey 13.2 (#28) 12.5 (#34)
Bradley-Terry 1.86 (#46) 2.26 (#23)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.31 (#43) 2.83 (#22)
RPI 0.554 (#72) 0.603 (#16)
Shooting & Four Factors TEX CSU
FG% 47.4% 48.4%
3PT% 36.2% 33.3%
REB / G 34.6 32.8
OREB / G 10.1 7.6
AST / TO 1.38 1.76
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.7% 54.8%
TOV% 16.6% 15.0%
ORB% 30.5% 24.4%
FT Rate 23.0% 24.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.0% 48.7%
Opp TOV% 18.6% 16.6%
DRB% 70.0% 73.0%
Opp FT Rate 25.2% 23.5%

Game Analysis

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