Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | CREI -1000 AKR +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +17 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -13.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -9.4 (+7.6) | 139.5 (-2.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -10.1 (+6.9) | 140.2 (-3.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -9.3 (+7.7) | 139.4 (-2.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -9.9 (+7.1) | 140.3 (-3.3) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 8-4 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 17.1 (#14) | 3.8 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#20) | 0.87 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#13) | 1.09 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#30) | 0.572 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.2% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.8% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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