Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
(4) Kansas Jayhawks
68 – 89
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(5) Gonzaga Bulldogs
Delta Center (Neutral) · March 23, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread GONZ -3.5 Away covered
O/U 154.5 Over
Money KU +155 / GONZ -200
Model Predictions
Spread Total KU win
Actual GONZ +21 157 Lost
Massey GONZ -1.6 (-19.4) — —
Massey Totals — 151.5 (+5.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 53% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 44% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML GONZ -2.4 (-18.6) 146.4 (+10.6) 38% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ GONZ -2.5 (-18.5) 146.7 (+10.3) 35% ✓
Baseline Plus ML GONZ -1.8 (-19.2) 147.1 (+9.9) 36% ✓
Baseline ML GONZ -3.2 (-17.8) 145.6 (+11.4) 34% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 26, 2020 GONZ 102 – 90 KU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings KU GONZ
Overall 23-11 27-8
Conference 10-8 14-2
Home 15-1 13-2
Away 3-7 8-2
Neutral 4-3 6-4
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.3 83.4
Avg Pts Against 70.3 69.5
Massey 14.5 (#19) 16.2 (#16)
Bradley-Terry 2.47 (#13) 2.36 (#20)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.86 (#19) 3.08 (#13)
RPI 0.609 (#13) 0.597 (#21)
Shooting & Four Factors KU GONZ
FG% 48.8% 51.1%
3PT% 33.3% 35.9%
REB / G 35.9 38.4
OREB / G 8.0 10.7
AST / TO 1.60 1.68
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.8% 56.8%
TOV% 16.7% 14.1%
ORB% 25.2% 33.4%
FT Rate 24.1% 22.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.7% 46.9%
Opp TOV% 16.5% 16.2%
DRB% 73.5% 72.8%
Opp FT Rate 19.8% 18.8%

Game Analysis

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