Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -27.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +39 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -24.8 (+14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -19.9 (+19.1) | 149.2 (-6.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -18.2 (+20.8) | 146.7 (-3.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -21.8 (+17.2) | 146.7 (-3.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -21.5 (+17.5) | 149.2 (-6.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 11-5 |
| Home | 17-0 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 21.7 (#3) | -3.1 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.84 (#1) | 0.15 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.51 (#2) | -0.22 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#6) | 0.522 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.88 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.