Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -450 TA&M +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +5 | 195 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -12.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.2 (+66.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -9.1 (-4.1) | 128.6 (+66.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -9.4 (-4.4) | 131.5 (+63.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -9.6 (-4.6) | 134.7 (+60.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -9.4 (-4.4) | 136.0 (+59.0) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 21, 2026 | HOU 88 – 57 TA&M |
| Dec 16, 2023 | HOU 70 – 66 TA&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-5 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-0 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.6 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 23.7 (#1) | 11.1 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.69 (#3) | 1.88 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.31 (#3) | 2.59 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#2) | 0.563 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 42.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 17.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 41.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.8% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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