Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -520 TA&M +390 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +31 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -8.6 (+22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -8.9 (+22.1) | 141.5 (+3.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -7.1 (+23.9) | 142.3 (+2.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -7.8 (+23.2) | 143.6 (+1.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -8.2 (+22.8) | 141.5 (+3.5) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 25, 2024 | HOU 100 – 95 TA&M |
| Dec 16, 2023 | HOU 70 – 66 TA&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 86.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 78.9 |
| Massey | 23.2 (#7) | 14.7 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.99 (#4) | 2.40 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.99 (#4) | 3.08 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#9) | 0.562 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.72 | 1.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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