Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -300 TA&M +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +4 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -8.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -6.2 (-2.2) | 127.7 (+8.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -8.5 (-4.5) | 130.5 (+5.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -7.9 (-3.9) | 131.6 (+4.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -6.8 (-2.8) | 130.1 (+5.9) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 21, 2026 | HOU 88 – 57 TA&M |
| Mar 25, 2024 | HOU 100 – 95 TA&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-5 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-0 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.6 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 21.8 (#4) | 12.9 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.00 (#3) | 2.00 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.64 (#2) | 2.79 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#14) | 0.627 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 16.1 | 17.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 41.8% | 45.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.6% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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