Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -1000 UVM +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +17 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -12.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (-21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -8.7 (+8.3) | 131.8 (-20.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -10.4 (+6.6) | 131.0 (-20.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -10.2 (+6.8) | 133.3 (-22.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -8.9 (+8.1) | 133.4 (-22.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-1 |
| Home | 15-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 63.8 |
| Massey | 17.4 (#10) | 4.6 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#19) | 1.52 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#12) | 1.76 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#33) | 0.593 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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