Well you know that it's a shame and a pity you were raised up in the city / And you never learned nothing about country ways "Not So Sweet Martha Lorraine" - Country Joe and the Fish
(5) Gonzaga Bulldogs
86 65
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(12) McNeese Cowboys
Delta Center (Neutral) · March 21, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread GONZ -6.5 Home covered
O/U 148.5 Over
Money GONZ -300 / MCN +225
Model Predictions
Spread Total GONZ win
Actual GONZ +21 151 Won
Massey GONZ -7.1 (+13.9)
Massey Totals 147.5 (+3.5)
Bradley-Terry 59%
Weighted B-T 62%
Baseline Plus ML GONZ -6.9 (+14.1) 144.7 (+6.3) 72%
Model 4 ML GONZ -12.4 (+8.6) 143.6 (+7.4) 82%
Model 3 ML GONZ -8.7 (+12.3) 145.4 (+5.6) 76%
Baseline ML GONZ -8.2 (+12.8) 142.9 (+8.1) 70%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GONZ MCN
Overall 27-8 30-4
Conference 14-2 17-1
Home 13-2 18-0
Away 8-2 11-3
Neutral 6-4 1-1
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 83.4 78.0
Avg Pts Against 69.5 64.8
Massey 15.7 (#16) 8.6 (#67)
Bradley-Terry 2.26 (#24) 1.91 (#44)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.94 (#17) 2.45 (#38)
RPI 0.588 (#32) 0.591 (#26)
Shooting & Four Factors GONZ MCN
FG% 51.1% 48.3%
3PT% 35.5% 39.4%
REB / G 38.2 34.8
OREB / G 10.7 10.5
AST / TO 1.68 1.51
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.7% 54.9%
TOV% 14.0% 14.1%
ORB% 33.3% 32.1%
FT Rate 22.9% 28.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.3% 47.8%
Opp TOV% 16.4% 23.0%
DRB% 72.8% 69.6%
Opp FT Rate 18.8% 24.2%

Game Analysis

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