Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -300 MCN +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +21 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -7.1 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -5.3 (+15.7) | 146.2 (+4.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -8.3 (+12.7) | 143.4 (+7.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -4.1 (+16.9) | 145.4 (+5.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -5.2 (+15.8) | 144.8 (+6.2) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 30-4 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 17-1 |
| Home | 13-2 | 18-0 |
| Away | 8-2 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 64.8 |
| Massey | 15.7 (#16) | 8.6 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#24) | 1.91 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#17) | 2.45 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#32) | 0.591 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.1% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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