I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
(3) Baylor Bears
92 67
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(14) Colgate Raiders
FedExForum (Neutral) · March 22, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread BAY -14.5 Home covered
O/U 137.5 Over
Money BAY -1600 / COLG +800
Model Predictions
Spread Total BAY win
Actual BAY +25 159 Won
Massey BAY -15.2 (+9.8)
Massey Totals 141.7 (+17.3)
Bradley-Terry 88%
Weighted B-T 93%
Baseline Plus ML BAY -15.6 (+9.4) 138.6 (+20.4) 89%
Model 4 ML BAY -14.1 (+10.9) 139.3 (+19.7) 87%
Model 3 ML BAY -15.7 (+9.3) 140.4 (+18.6) 88%
Baseline ML BAY -15.0 (+10.0) 140.1 (+18.9) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BAY COLG
Overall 24-11 25-10
Conference 11-7 16-2
Home 15-2 13-3
Away 4-5 10-5
Neutral 5-4 2-2
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 79.9 70.1
Avg Pts Against 71.1 64.9
Massey 17.1 (#13) 2.0 (#138)
Bradley-Terry 2.41 (#13) 0.39 (#134)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.93 (#16) 0.33 (#146)
RPI 0.592 (#26) 0.561 (#64)
Shooting & Four Factors BAY COLG
FG% 48.0% 46.6%
3PT% 39.4% 35.7%
REB / G 35.0 35.5
OREB / G 11.1 8.0
AST / TO 1.22 1.37
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.5% 53.4%
TOV% 17.6% 16.4%
ORB% 35.0% 24.9%
FT Rate 29.9% 18.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.3% 47.2%
Opp TOV% 17.3% 16.1%
DRB% 72.9% 75.5%
Opp FT Rate 22.6% 16.4%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.