Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -1600 COLG +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +25 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -15.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -12.1 (+12.9) | 140.1 (+18.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -12.6 (+12.4) | 138.3 (+20.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -12.4 (+12.6) | 138.6 (+20.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -11.7 (+13.3) | 140.2 (+18.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 16-2 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-5 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 64.9 |
| Massey | 17.1 (#13) | 2.0 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#13) | 0.39 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#16) | 0.33 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#26) | 0.561 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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