Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -500 NCSU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +13 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -12.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-39.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -9.4 (+3.6) | 148.2 (-35.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -8.6 (+4.4) | 145.3 (-32.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -9.0 (+4.0) | 147.2 (-34.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -8.0 (+5.0) | 145.5 (-32.5) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 28, 2024 | PUR 71 – 61 NCSU |
| Dec 12, 2021 | PUR 82 – 72 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 26-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 16-0 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 10-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 22.7 (#3) | 10.7 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.95 (#2) | 2.15 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.84 (#1) | 2.56 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.678 (#1) | 0.557 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.6% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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