I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
(1) Purdue Boilermakers
63 50
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(11) NC State Wolfpack
State Farm Stadium (Neutral) · April 6, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread PUR -9.5 Home covered
O/U 146.5 Under
Money PUR -500 / NCSU +350
Model Predictions
Spread Total PUR win
Actual PUR +13 113 Won
Massey PUR -12.0 (+1.0)
Massey Totals 152.7 (-39.7)
Bradley-Terry 86%
Weighted B-T 91%
Baseline Plus ML PUR -9.7 (+3.3) 147.5 (-34.5) 82%
Model 4 ML PUR -11.3 (+1.7) 145.8 (-32.8) 83%
Model 3 ML PUR -12.4 (+0.6) 148.5 (-35.5) 85%
Baseline ML PUR -11.0 (+2.0) 144.8 (-31.8) 83%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 28, 2024 PUR 7161 NCSU
Dec 12, 2021 PUR 8272 NCSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PUR NCSU
Overall 34-5 26-15
Conference 17-3 9-11
Home 16-0 12-5
Away 7-3 4-7
Neutral 11-2 10-3
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 82.3 75.6
Avg Pts Against 69.0 71.8
Massey 22.7 (#3) 10.7 (#49)
Bradley-Terry 3.95 (#2) 2.15 (#29)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.84 (#1) 2.56 (#33)
RPI 0.678 (#1) 0.557 (#72)
Shooting & Four Factors PUR NCSU
FG% 49.1% 45.2%
3PT% 40.6% 34.7%
REB / G 40.8 35.5
OREB / G 12.3 10.2
AST / TO 1.68 1.38
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.2% 50.9%
TOV% 16.3% 13.7%
ORB% 38.0% 28.4%
FT Rate 30.3% 23.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.5% 49.5%
Opp TOV% 13.6% 17.4%
DRB% 76.0% 71.0%
Opp FT Rate 16.2% 23.4%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.