Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | KU -275 SAM +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +4 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | KU -7.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.3 (+25.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -6.4 (-2.4) | 152.2 (+29.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -5.0 (-1.0) | 153.7 (+28.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -6.6 (-2.6) | 154.4 (+27.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -5.0 (-1.0) | 151.8 (+30.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-1 | 18-0 |
| Away | 3-7 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 84.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#20) | 7.2 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#17) | 1.90 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#21) | 1.92 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#18) | 0.592 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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