Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -700 MORE +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +16 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -14.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -11.9 (+4.1) | 146.7 (+7.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -12.6 (+3.4) | 145.0 (+9.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -12.1 (+3.9) | 144.0 (+10.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -11.5 (+4.5) | 144.8 (+9.2) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 17.1 (#13) | 2.8 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#9) | 0.74 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#8) | 0.84 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#12) | 0.556 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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