Funky Claude was running in and out / pulling kids out the ground "Smoke On the Water" - Deep Purple
(3) Illinois Fighting Illini
85 69
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(14) Morehead State Eagles
CHI Health Center Omaha (Neutral) · March 21, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread ILL -10.5 Home covered
O/U 145.5 Over
Money ILL -700 / MORE +450
Model Predictions
Spread Total ILL win
Actual ILL +16 154 Won
Massey ILL -14.3 (+1.7)
Massey Totals 149.2 (+4.8)
Bradley-Terry 88%
Weighted B-T 93%
Baseline Plus ML ILL -13.8 (+2.2) 145.9 (+8.1) 85%
Model 4 ML ILL -16.4 (-0.4) 146.1 (+7.9) 86%
Model 3 ML ILL -14.8 (+1.2) 147.5 (+6.5) 85%
Baseline ML ILL -14.1 (+1.9) 147.1 (+6.9) 83%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ILL MORE
Overall 29-9 26-9
Conference 14-6 14-4
Home 15-3 14-1
Away 6-5 9-7
Neutral 8-1 3-1
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 83.4 72.3
Avg Pts Against 73.3 66.3
Massey 17.1 (#13) 2.8 (#127)
Bradley-Terry 2.69 (#9) 0.74 (#115)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.45 (#8) 0.84 (#119)
RPI 0.611 (#12) 0.556 (#71)
Shooting & Four Factors ILL MORE
FG% 47.1% 46.4%
3PT% 35.0% 35.3%
REB / G 41.3 36.5
OREB / G 12.9 10.2
AST / TO 1.21 1.12
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.8% 54.3%
TOV% 15.1% 18.6%
ORB% 36.2% 32.0%
FT Rate 28.1% 22.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.0% 45.7%
Opp TOV% 12.4% 15.4%
DRB% 73.9% 73.6%
Opp FT Rate 19.5% 24.8%

Game Analysis

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