Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -250 YALE +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +28 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -6.6 (+21.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -4.6 (+23.4) | 136.8 (+5.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -5.0 (+23.0) | 133.5 (+8.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -4.7 (+23.3) | 136.1 (+5.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -4.6 (+23.4) | 137.2 (+4.8) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-3 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-2 |
| Away | 6-8 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 68.9 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#26) | 6.9 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#17) | 1.52 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#16) | 1.78 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#11) | 0.602 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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