The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
(5) San Diego State Aztecs
85 57
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(13) Yale Bulldogs
Spokane Arena (Neutral) · March 25, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SDSU -5.5 Home covered
O/U 132.5 Over
Money SDSU -250 / YALE +188
Model Predictions
Spread Total SDSU win
Actual SDSU +28 142 Won
Massey SDSU -6.6 (+21.4)
Massey Totals 134.2 (+7.8)
Bradley-Terry 71%
Weighted B-T 77%
Baseline Plus ML SDSU -6.6 (+21.4) 136.3 (+5.7) 73%
Model 4 ML SDSU -7.3 (+20.7) 134.6 (+7.4) 75%
Model 3 ML SDSU -6.5 (+21.5) 136.6 (+5.4) 75%
Baseline ML SDSU -6.2 (+21.8) 136.5 (+5.5) 71%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SDSU YALE
Overall 26-11 23-10
Conference 11-7 11-3
Home 14-1 9-2
Away 6-8 9-6
Neutral 6-2 5-2
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.7 73.2
Avg Pts Against 67.4 68.9
Massey 13.6 (#26) 6.9 (#85)
Bradley-Terry 2.42 (#17) 1.52 (#68)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.00 (#16) 1.78 (#72)
RPI 0.618 (#11) 0.602 (#20)
Shooting & Four Factors SDSU YALE
FG% 43.9% 46.2%
3PT% 31.2% 34.9%
REB / G 37.4 35.8
OREB / G 11.6 9.7
AST / TO 1.18 1.54
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.8% 52.4%
TOV% 16.1% 14.1%
ORB% 33.0% 28.3%
FT Rate 27.4% 19.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.2% 49.9%
Opp TOV% 18.1% 16.1%
DRB% 71.7% 76.0%
Opp FT Rate 23.6% 21.6%

Game Analysis

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