Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 172.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -400 COFC +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +13 | 205 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -13.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.1 (+29.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -8.3 (+4.7) | 169.8 (+35.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -8.2 (+4.8) | 173.5 (+31.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -8.5 (+4.5) | 169.0 (+36.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -7.3 (+5.7) | 168.9 (+36.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.1 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#9) | 5.0 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#21) | 1.38 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#17) | 1.57 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#15) | 0.566 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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