I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
(4) Alabama Crimson Tide
109 96
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(13) Charleston Cougars
Spokane Arena (Neutral) · March 23, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread ALA -8.5 Home covered
O/U 172.5 Over
Money ALA -400 / COFC +280
Model Predictions
Spread Total ALA win
Actual ALA +13 205 Won
Massey ALA -13.2 (-0.2)
Massey Totals 175.1 (+29.9)
Bradley-Terry 71%
Weighted B-T 79%
Baseline Plus ML ALA -10.2 (+2.8) 171.2 (+33.8) 82%
Model 4 ML ALA -9.9 (+3.1) 173.7 (+31.3) 80%
Model 3 ML ALA -11.8 (+1.2) 173.5 (+31.5) 83%
Baseline ML ALA -10.5 (+2.5) 175.1 (+29.9) 84%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ALA COFC
Overall 25-12 27-8
Conference 13-5 15-3
Home 14-2 13-2
Away 5-5 10-2
Neutral 6-5 4-4
Last 5 2-3 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 90.1 80.5
Avg Pts Against 81.2 74.0
Massey 18.1 (#9) 5.0 (#104)
Bradley-Terry 2.28 (#21) 1.38 (#76)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.88 (#17) 1.57 (#84)
RPI 0.607 (#15) 0.566 (#56)
Shooting & Four Factors ALA COFC
FG% 47.7% 44.2%
3PT% 36.5% 34.8%
REB / G 39.6 39.3
OREB / G 12.7 12.8
AST / TO 1.34 1.52
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.2% 52.4%
TOV% 16.0% 14.4%
ORB% 35.0% 33.4%
FT Rate 27.6% 19.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.9% 50.6%
Opp TOV% 15.6% 16.4%
DRB% 70.0% 73.5%
Opp FT Rate 29.4% 20.0%

Game Analysis

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